November 1, 2023 Chair Powell’s Press Conference FINAL
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spending, which continues to drive more hiring. And so you’ve had a really—that whole—that
whole dynamic has been, and also at the same time, the pandemic effects are wearing off, so that
goods availability, automobile availability is better—or was better, I think it still is. And, from a
business standpoint, there are more people to hire. And it is more labor supply. So the whole
thing has led to more growth, more spending, and that kind of thing. And it’s been—you know,
it’s been good, and the thing is, we’ve been achieving progress on inflation in the middle of this.
So, it’s been a dynamic. The question is, how long can that continue? And, you know, I just
think this—the existence of this second set of factors at this time, which is the unwinding of the
pandemic effects, that’s what makes this cycle unique, I think, and, you know, we’re still
learning. That took longer for that process to begin than we thought, and we’re still learning
about how it plays out. That’s all we can do.
MICHELLE SMITH. Let’s go to Daniel for the last question.
DANIEL AVIS. Thank you, Chair Powell. I’m Daniel Avis from Agence France-Presse.
Just a quick question following up on an earlier one with regards to the Israel–Hamas conflict.
The Fed’s Financial Stability Report said the Israel–Hamas conflict and the conflict in Ukraine
“pose important risks to global economic activity, including the possibility of sustained
disruptions to regional trade and food, energy, and other commodities.” You’ve had
organizations at the World Bank warning of a possible surge in oil prices if the war spreads to
other countries in the region. I’m just wondering how the Fed is monitoring these developments
in the Middle East—you mentioned they are—and just what the potential economic impact could
be if the conflict does spread to other countries in the region. Thank you.
CHAIR POWELL. I wouldn’t want to speculate too much, but I’ll just say so—you
know, really the question there is, does the war spread more widely and does it start to do things