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In the historical rates scenario, discretionary outlays equal 7.1 percent of GDP and revenues equal 17.2 percent of GDP over the entire projection period. In the payable benefits
scenario, Social Security benefits are limited to the amounts payable from dedicated funding sources.
Federal Debt Under the Baseline and Two Scenarios
in Which Revenues and Spending Differ
If, between 2023 and 2053,
discretionary spending and
revenues were at their 30-
year historical averages as a
percentage of GDP, then
federal debt held by the
public in 2053 would exceed
250 percent of GDP.
If, instead, Social Security
benefits were limited to the
amounts payable from
dedicated funding sources
after the combined trust
funds are exhausted in fiscal
year 2033, federal debt held
by the public in 2053 would
equal 132 percent of GDP.