PowerPoint Presentation

2021

Vacation Home

Counties Report

National Association of REALTORS® Research Group

Association of REALTORS

For questions about this report or reprint information, contact da[email protected].

VACATION HOME COUNTIES REPORT

June 2021

LAWRENCE YUN, PhD

Chief Economist & Senior Vice President for Research

JESSICA LAUTZ, Doctor of Real Estate

Vice President of Demographics and Behavioral Insights

GAY CORORATON

Senior Economist & Director of Housing and Commercial Research

HUA ZHONG

Data Scientist

MEREDITH DUNN

Research Manager

Report Highlights

The Vacation Home Counties 2021 Report seeks to analyze and contribute

information on how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the demand for vacation

homes as government orders and advisories led to working from home, virtual

schooling, and online meetings.

In conducting the analysis, NAR used Multiple Listing Service data in 1,205

counties, survey data from the monthly REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey,

and publicly available data from the US Census Bureau.

Vacation home sales trends

The share of vacation homes increased to 5.5% in 2020 and to an average of 6.7%

during January-April 2021. Vacation home sales rose by 16.4% to 310,600 in 2020,

outpacing the pace of total existing home sale of 5.6%. Sales are up 57.2% year-

over-year during January-April 2021 compared to the 20% year-over-year change

in total existing home sales. Vacation home sales averaged 412,500 during the

first four months measured on a seasonally adjusted annual basis.

Overall, the housing market made a sharp rebound in the second half of 2020

that wiped out the losses in the first half of the year. However, the market was

even hotter in what NAR delineated as vacation home counties, which are

counties where vacant seasonal, occasional, or recreational use housing account

for at least 20% of the housing stock.

Based on data from 1,205 counties (145 vacation home counties and 1,060 non-

vacation home counties), existing home sales rose by 24.2% on average in

vacation home counties, more than double the 11.2% annual pace in non-vacation

home counties.

Home prices rose at a stronger pace in vacation home counties. The median

existing home sales price typically rose by 14.2% in vacation home counties,

compared to 10.1% in non-vacation home counties.

Properties typically stayed longer on the market in vacation home counties at 59

days compared to 30 days in non-vacation home counties in 2020. However, the

time to sell a home in vacation home counties has speeded up more than in non-

vacation home counties. In 2020, properties in vacation home counties typically

sold more quickly by 13 days compared to 8 days in non-vacation home counties.

Vacation home buyers are more likely to pay all-cash. During January-April 2021,

all-cash sales rose to 53% of all vacation home purchases, a higher share

compared to less than 50% in past years. In comparison, 22% of all existing-home

sales in January-April 2021 were cash sales.

Report Highlights

In 2020, 6.1% of workers 16 years old and over in vacation home counties

typically worked from home compared to 4.3% of workers in non-vacation

home counties. The opportunity to work from home could further raise the

demand for vacation homes in future years.

A lower fraction of households in vacation home counties have broadband

internet service, typically at 55.3%, compared to 56.7% in non-vacation home

counties. Increasing the access to broadband service will be key to attracting

vacation home buyers who want to use their vacation home as a workplace on

weekends or for longer days during seasonal holidays and school breaks.

There was a noticeable increase in net domestic migration in vacation home

counties in 2020. In 2020, the median number of net movers rose to 98,279,

from 78,114 in 2019.

Top 1% Vacation Home Counties

NAR classified a county as a vacation home county if the vacant housing for

seasonal/occasion/recreational use accounted for at least 20% of the housing

stock. Based on the US Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey 5-

year estimates, NAR identified 323 out of 3,143 counties (including independent

cities) as vacation home counties, representing 10.3% of U.S. counties.

Of the 145 counties in which NAR has market data, NAR identified the top 1%

(roughly 30 markets) hottest vacation home counties in 2020 based on sales

growth, price growth, change in days on market, and the number of seasonal

homes in 2019 to account for market size. An additional criteria for being in the

top 1% was that the county had to meet all three criteria of having higher price,

higher sales growth, and faster days on market. Only counties with non-zero

sales during the years 2017 through 2020 and with at least 10 sales were

included in the analysis.

The top 1% of vacation home counties were in 16 states. North Carolina had four

vacation counties (Swain, Alleghany, Macon, Watauga); there were three each in

New York (Greene, Sullivan, Hamilton), Vermont (Windham, Bennington,

Windsor), Massachusetts (Dukes, Barnstable, Nantucket), and Michigan

(Oscoda, Alcona, Clare); there were two each in Florida (Lee, Collier), Missouri

(Hickory, Camden), and Maryland (Garrett, Worcester). Oklahoma, Maine,

Arizona, New Jersey, Georgia, New Mexico, Delaware, and Minnesota each had

one vacation home county that landed in the top 1% list.

Vacation Home Sales

Share of vacation homes to total sales rise to nearly 7% in January-

April 2021

Vacation home sales rose strongly in 2020 and in January-April 2021. With no

other major event happening since 2020 other than the pandemic, the rise in

vacation home sales can be reasonably attributed to the demand for vacation

homes with people able to work from home, students schooled virtually, and

as the population sought for safety and recreation away from urban areas.

According to a monthly survey of the sales transactions of REALTORS®

, the

share of vacation home sales to total existing home sales rose to 5.5% in 2020

and to 6.7% in the first four months of 2021. As of April, the share was at 8%. In

past years, vacation home sales accounted for about 5% of existing-home

sales. Vacation home sales rose by 16.4% to 310,600 in 2020, outpacing the

5.6% growth in total existing home sales and by 57.2% year-over-year during

January-April 202 compared to the 20% growth in existing home sales. Sales

are averaging at 412,500 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis during the first

four months of 2021.

1 REALTORS® Confidence Index (RCI) Survey. The RCI survey is a random survey sent to 50,000 REALTORS®, of

which about 5,000 respond to the survey, and of which about 1,500 to 2,000 reported they had a transaction

during the month. The survey asks about the most recent transaction during the month and the responses can be

considered as a random sample.

Vacation Home Buyers

53% of vacation home sales

were all-cash

Vacation home buyers are more likely

to pay all-cash. During January-April

2021, all-cash sales rose to 53% of all

vacation home purchases, a higher

share compared to less than 50% in

past years. In comparison, 22% of all

existing-home sales in January-April

2021 were cash sales.

In the monthly surveys, REALTORS®

have reported that buyers with the

wherewithal are paying all-cash to

increase the attractiveness of their

offer in a severely competitive

market characterized by the lowest

level of inventory of homes for sale

since 1968. As of April, the inventory

of unsold homes stood at 1.16 million

nationally, down 20.5% from one year

ago, which is equivalent to just 2.2

months of the monthly pace of

demand. A balanced market needs

six months of supply.

77% of vacation home buyers

made a down payment of at

least 20%

Vacation home buyers are more likely

to put down a higher down payment

compared to all existing-home

buyers. Seventy-seven percent of

vacation home buyers put down at

least 20% down payment compared

to just 49% among all existing-home

buyers.

Vacation Home Buyers

21% of vacation home buyers

purchased a condo/coop

During January-April 2020, 21% of

vacation home buyers purchased

an existing condominium or coop, a

higher share compared to nearly

12% among all existing home

buyers. The share of condo/coop

purchases to vacation home sales

has trended downwards from 30%

in 2016 to 21% as of January-April

2021. In 2020 and 2021, the decline

could be due to the reluctance of

vacation home buyers to purchase

condominiums for health safety

reasons as well as the expectation

that renting out a condominium

(when they are not using the

property) could be more difficult

with the COVID-19 pandemic still

raging.

4% of vacation home buyers

were first-time buyers

Not every vacation home buyer is a

second home buyer. About 4% of

vacation home buyers were first-

time buyers.

Vacation Home Counties

NAR considers a county as a ‘vacation home county’ if vacant homes for

seasonal, occasional, or recreational use account for at least 20% of the housing

stock. As of 2019, 323 out of 3,143 counties were ‘vacation home counties.’

The housing market is hot in vacation home counties compared to non-

vacation home counties

Overall, the housing market made a sharp rebound in the second half of 2020 that

wiped out the losses in the first half of the year. However, the market was even

hotter in what NAR delineated as vacation home counties, which are counties

where vacant seasonal, occasional, or recreational use housing account for at least

20% of the housing stock. Based on the 2019 5-year US Census Bureau’s American

Community Survey, NAR identified 323 out of 3,143 counties (including independent

cities) as vacation home counties, representing 10.3% of U.S. counties.

Based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in 145 vacation home counties and

1,060 non-vacation home counties, existing home sales typically rose by 24.2% on

average in vacation home counties, more than double the 11.2% annual pace in non-

vacation home counties.

Home prices rose at a stronger pace in vacation home counties. The median

existing home sales price typically rose by 14.2% in vacation home counties,

compared to 10.1% in non-vacation home counties.

Properties typically stayed longer on the market in vacation home counties at 59

days compared to 30 days in non-vacation home counties in 2020. However, the

time to sell a home in vacation home counties has speeded up more than in non-

vacation home counties. In 2020, properties in vacation home counties typically

sold more quickly by 13 days compared to 8 days in non-vacation home counties.

2 NAR analysis of Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data

Vacation Home Counties

Sales growth in vacation home counties outpaced sales growth in non-

vacation home counties in 2020

In 2020, existing home sales typically rose at a faster pace in vacation home

counties compared to non-vacation home counties. Home sales typically rose by

double-digit pace in 2020 in vacation home counties except in the Pacific division.

The strongest sales growth was in the South Atlantic division (Delaware, Maryland,

Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and the

District of Columbia), with home sales typically up nearly 31% in the vacation home

counties in this division.

The second highest sales growth was in the Middle Atlantic division (New York,

New Jersey, and Pennsylvania), with home sales typically up 27.8% in the vacation

home counties in this division.

In the West South Central division (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas),

sales typically rose by 25.7% in the vacation home counties. In the New England

division (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and

Vermont), sales typically rose 25.3% in the vacation home counties.

Vacation Home Counties

Prices in vacation home counties rose at faster pace than in non-

vacation home counties in 2020

In 2020, the median existing home sales price in vacation home counties typically

rose at a faster pace compared to the pace in non-vacation home counties except

in the Pacific division (Washington, Oregon, and California). For comparison, in

2019, median sales prices in vacation home counties rose at a faster pace compared

to the pace in non-vacation home counties in only two divisions (Middle Atlantic

and Mountain).

The median home sales prices in the vacation home counties rose at the strongest

pace in the Mountain division (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New

Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming), with the median home sales prices typically up by

20% year-over-year.

The New England division (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

Rhode Island, and Vermont) had the second highest price growth, with the median

home sales prices in the vacation home counties typically up 16% year-over-year.

The Middle Atlantic division (New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania) had the third

highest price growth, with the median home sales prices in the vacation home

counties typically up 14% year-over-year.

Vacation Home Counties

Homes sold faster in vacation home counties than in non-vacation

home counties in 2020

In nearly all U.S. divisions, properties for sale in vacation home counties typically

stayed for fewer days on the market in 2020 compared to properties for sale in

non-vacation home counties.

In the New England division (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

Rhode Island, and Vermont), properties in vacation home counties typically sold 24

days faster compared to 9 days in non-vacation home counties.

In the South Atlantic division (Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, North

Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and the District of Columbia), properties

in vacation home counties typically sold 15 days faster compared to 9 days in non-

vacation home counties.

In the West South Central division ( Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma) and in

the Pacific division (Washington, Oregon, and California), properties typically sold 14

days faster in vacation home counties compared to 6 and 9 days respectively in the

non-vacation home counties in these divisions.

Vacation Home Counties

Top 1% Vacation Home Counties

3 NAR defined a vacation home county as one where vacant homes for seasonal use accounted for at least 20% of the housing stock (19.5% and above are rounded

to 20%). In calculating the ranking, NAR considered four factors: number of vacant seasonal homes (size effect), y/y percent change in home sales, y/y percent

change in the median sales price, y/y change in days on market. Then, only counties that had higher sales and prices and faster days on market in 2020 were

selected to be a candidate hot market (92 counties). An average z-score is then calculated on each of the four variables. The higher the z-score, the higher is the

ranking. All these top 30 markets had positive z-scores (upper half of distribution). Small vacation counties can exhibit large fluctuations in sales and prices as a

smaller base can lead to large percentage changes.

Top 1% vacation home counties are scattered across 16 states

Of the 145 counties that NAR has market, it identified the top 1% (roughly 30

markets) hottest vacation home counties in 2020 based on sales growth, price

growth, change in days on market, and the number of seasonal homes in 2019 to

account for market size. An additional criteria for being in the top 1% was that the

county had to meet all three criteria of having higher price, higher sales growth,

and faster days on market. Only counties with non-zero sales during the years

2017 through 2020 and with at least 10 sales were included in the analysis.

The top 1% of vacation home counties were in 16 states. North Carolina had four

vacation counties (Swain, Alleghany, Macon, Watauga); there were three each in

New York (Greene, Sullivan, Hamilton), Vermont (Windham, Bennington, Windsor),

Massachusetts (Dukes, Barnstable, Nantucket), and Michigan (Oscoda, Alcona,

Clare); there were two each in Florida (Lee, Collier), Missouri (Hickory, Camden),

Maryland (Garrett, Worcester). Oklahoma, Maine, Arizona, New Jersey, Georgia,

New Mexico, Delaware, and Minnesota each had one vacation home county that

landed in the top 1% list.

Top 10 Vacation Home Counties

Lee County, Florida is located in Southwest Florida on the Gulf Coast. Fort Myers

and Cape Coral are the popular destination spots. It has the largest number of

seasonal vacation homes, at 90,792, which accounts for 23% of the housing

stock. In 2020, home sales rose 10%, the median sales price rose 12.3%, and

properties sold 45 days faster than in 2019. Home prices are in the mid-price

range with the median sales price at $247,000.

Oscoda County, Michigan is located on the northern side of the Au Sable River

that runs into Lake Huron. Detroit is about four hours away. It boasts of the

Huron-Manistee National Forests, Oscoda Beach Park, Clark Marsh, and Turtle

Marsh. It is one of the smallest vacation home counties with 5,028 seasonal

vacant homes that account for 54.5% of the housing stock. In 2020, home sales

rose 53.8%, the median sales price rose 79.2%, and properties sold 30 days faster

than in 2019. It is one of the most inexpensive vacation counties with a median

sales price of $107,500.

Swain County, North Carolina is located on the far western border of North

Carolina. Knoxville, Tennessee is about two hours away. The Great Smokey

Mountains National Park is a major draw for tourists and homebuyers. Another

draw is Dollywood Parks and Resorts. It is one of the smallest vacation counties

with 2,066 seasonal vacant homes that account for 22.9% of its housing stock. In

2020, home sales rose 140.7%, the median sales price rose 19.8%, and properties

sold 48 days faster than in 2019. Home prices are in the mid-price range with the

median sales price at $245,000.

Collier County, Florida is located on the Gulf of Mexico in Southwest Florida.

Popular natural wonders are the Everglades National Park, Naples Zoo, and the

Bird Garden. It is the third largest vacation home county with 58,406 seasonal

vacant homes which account for 27.2% of its housing stock. In 2020, home sales

rose 4.6%, the median sales price rose 10.2%, and properties sold 53 days faster

than in 2019. Home prices are still in the mid-price range with the median sales

price at $314,000.

Dukes County, Massachusetts consists of the island of Martha’s Vineyard,

Chappaquiddick Island, the Elizabeth Islands, the island of Nomans Land and

other islets. It has 10,681 seasonal vacant homes which account for 59.7% of its

housing stock. In 2020, home sales rose 13.8%, the median sales price rose

63.6%, and properties sold 38 days faster than in 2019. It is the second most

expensive vacation home county with a median sales price of $1.4 million in

2020.

Top 10 Vacation Home Counties

Alleghany County, North Carolina is located in the Blue Ridge Mountains of

Northwestern North Carolina, so its main attraction is the Blue Ridge Mountains

and its parks and rivers. It is a small vacation home county with 2,432 vacation

homes that account for 29.7% of its housing stock. In 2020, home sales rose

248%, the median sales price rose 9.9%, and properties sold six days faster than

in 2019. Home prices are in the mid-price range with the median sales price at

$219,900.

Garrett County, Maryland is the westernmost county of Maryland. It is in the

Appalachian Mountains and is drained by the Potomac and Youghiogheny

rivers, so it offers vacation spots for hiking, kayaking, and camping. It is a small

vacation county with 4,623 seasonal homes that make up 23.9% of its housing

stock. In 2020, home sales rose 35.8%, the median sales price rose 35.4%, and

properties sold 48 days faster than in 2019. Home prices are in the mid-price

range with the median sales price at $325,000.

Barnstable County, Massachusetts consists mainly of Cape Cod and several

small islands. It was formed as part of the Plymouth Colony in 1865. It is the

second largest vacation home county, with 62,643 seasonally vacant homes that

make up 38.3% of its housing stock. In 2020, home sales rose 20.4%, the median

sales price rose 16.1%, and properties sold 20 days faster than in 2019. Home

prices are bordering in the high price range with the median sales price at

$475,000, although home prices are relatively affordable compared to the

homes in Dukes and Nantucket.

Alcona County, Michigan is in the Northeastern Lower Peninsula with six miles

of Lake Huron coastline. It is heavily forested by the Huron-Manistee National

Forest. Detroit is about four hours away. It is one of the smallest vacation home

counties, with 5,573 seasonally vacant homes that make up 49.8% of its housing

stock. In 2020, home sales rose 80.4%, the median sales price rose 51.5%, and

properties sold 10 days faster than in 2019. Houses are inexpensive, with the

median sales price at $150,000.

Macon County, North Carolina is in western North Carolina. The Nantahala River,

one of the most popular whitewater rafting destinations, runs through it. It’s a

relatively small vacation home county with 7,633 vacation homes that account

for 29.8% of its housing stock. In 2020, home sales rose 155.3%, the median sales

price rose 30.6%, and properties sold two days faster than in 2019. Houses are in

the mid-price range, with the median sales price at $320,000.

Other Top Vacation Home

Counties in 2020

A higher fraction of the workforce work from home in vacation

home counties, but a lower share of households have broadband

internet

In 2020, across all nine divisions, the fraction of the workforce that work from

home is typically higher in the vacation home counties than in the non-vacation

home counties. In the vacation home counties, 6.1% of workers 16 years old and

over typically worked from home compared to 4.3% of workers in non-vacation

home counties. As of May 2021, 16.6% of employed workers 16 years old and

over worked from home, and among workers with computer and mathematical

occupations, 55% worked from home.

The opportunity to work from home

could further raise the demand for vacation homes in future years.

However, a slightly lower fraction of households in vacation home counties have

broadband internet service, typically at 55.3%, compared to 56.7% in non-

vacation home counties. Increasing the access to broadband service will be key

to attracting vacation home buyers who want to use their vacation home as a

workplace on weekends or for longer days during seasonal holidays and school

breaks.

The New England division (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts,

Connecticut and Rhode Island) vacation home counties have the highest share

of households with broadband internet service, typically at 69.6%, although this

fraction is still below the 74.5% fraction of households that typically have

broadband internet service in non-vacation home counties.

Vacation Home Counties

4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Net domestic migration rose in vacation home counties in 2020

There was a noticeable increase in net domestic migration in vacation home

counties in 2020 as the median number of net movers rose to 98,279 from 78,114 in

2019. Only the Middle Atlantic division (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) had a

net outflow in both vacation and non-vacation home counties.

The number of people who move into a vacation home county is an indicator of

the attractiveness of a county as a place to live and work in. The opportunity to

work from home could further raise the demand for homes in the affordable

vacation home counties with good broadband internet service in future years, with

workers purchasing a home either for vacation use or as a primary residence

among workers who are able to work from home full-time or permanently.

Total net domestic migration of the vacation and non-vacation counties should be zero but there's a slight discrepancy because

Chugach Census Area (Alaska) is not reported in the list of counties in the 2019 American Community Survey Table B25004 but it is

reported in the US Census Bureau's list of counties in the July 2020 Vintage Population Estimates.

Vacation Home Counties

Vacation home counties with the largest net domestic migration

Vacation home counties were impacted differently by the pandemic in 2020, with

some counties experiencing net domestic migration and some counties

experiencing a net outflow.

Lee County, Florida (popular vacation spot is Naples/Fort Myers) had the largest

net domestic migration. Horry County, South Carolina (popular vacation spot is

Myrtle Beach) came in second, followed by Sussex County, Delaware (popular

vacation spot is Rehoboth Beach), Brunswick County, North Carolina (popular spot

is Brunswick Landing) and Osceola County, Florida (popular spot is Walt Disney

World®).

On the other hand, Coconino County, Arizona (popular spot is Grand Canyon);

Eagle County and Summit County in Colorado (popular destination is

Breckenridge), and Allegany County, New York (popular spot is Allegany River

trails) had net domestic out-migration.

The National Association of REALTORS® is America’s largest trade association,

representing more than 1.4 million members, including NAR’s institutes, societies

and councils, involved in all aspects of the real estate industry. NAR membership

includes brokers, salespeople, property managers, appraisers, counselors and

others engaged in both residential and commercial real estate. The term

REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate

professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and

subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. Working for America's property owners, the

National Association provides a facility for professional development, research

and exchange of information among its members and to the public and

government for the purpose of preserving the free enterprise system and the right

to own real property.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

RESEARCH GROUP

The Mission of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Research Group is to

produce timely, data-driven market analysis and authoritative business

intelligence to serve members, and inform consumers, policymakers and the

media in a professional and accessible manner.

To find out about other products from NAR’s Research Group, visit

www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics

500 New Jersey Avenue, NW

Washington, DC 20001

202.383.1000