Percent change in incidence
Current recommendation
Current recommendation plus adults through age 45 years
32,000,000 cases prevented
Cervical cancer
CIN 2/3
Years since start of vaccination program
Other HPV cancers
Anogenital warts
56,000 additional cases prevented
13,000,000 cases prevented
3,000 additional cases prevented
653,000 cases prevented
124,000 additional cases prevented
4,000 additional cases prevented
769,000 cases prevented
CIN, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; Median estimates generated by 50 best fitting parameter sets
Brisson, Presentation to ACIP, Atlanta, GA. February 2019
Estimated impact of HPV vaccination: HPV-ADVISE results
• In the context of the existing HPV
vaccination program, expanding
vaccination to adults through age 45
years would produce relatively small
additional health benefits and less
favorable cost-effectiveness ratios
17