2.0 Confronting unintended consequences:
Drug control and the criminal black market
163
Last years World Drug Report reviewed 100 years of drug
control efforts, documenting the development of one of
the first international cooperative ventures designed to
deal with a global challenge. This pioneering work
brought together nations with very different political
and cultural perspectives to agree on a topic of consider-
able sensitivity: the issue of substance abuse and addic-
tion. Despite wars, economic crises, and other cataclysmic
events of state, the global drug control movement has
chugged steadily forward, culminating in a framework
of agreements and joint interventions with few prece-
dents or peers in international law.
Today, a number of substances are prohibited in the
domestic legislation of almost every country. As dis-
cussed below, this unanimity has created a bulwark
shielding millions from the effects of drug abuse and
addiction. In the past, many of these substances were
legally produced and, in some cases, aggressively mar-
keted, to devastating effect. The collective nations of the
world have agreed that this state of affairs was unaccept-
able, and have created an international control system
that allows crops such as opium poppy to be produced
for medical use, with very little diversion to the illicit
market.
Despite this achievement, drug control efforts have
rarely proceeded according to plan. There have been
reversals and set-backs, surprising developments and
unintended consequences. Traffickers have proven to be
resilient and innovative opponents and cultivators dif-
ficult to deter. The number, nature, and sources of con-
trolled substances have changed dramatically over the
years. None of this could have been predicted at the
outset.
But then, very little has been simple or smooth about
developments in international affairs over the last cen-
tury. Other international problems – including poverty,
war, weapons proliferation and infectious disease – have
defied early projections of a swift resolution. Some
efforts have been more successful than others, but, in all
cases, the learning process could be described as “chal-
lenging”. Today, the enterprise of global coordination
and cooperation remains a work in progress. Tremen-
dous gains have been made, however, and the need for
collaborative solutions to the problems facing us all is
greater than ever before.
2.1 Why illicit drugs must remain illicit
Oddly, of all areas of international cooperation, drug
contr
ol is uniquely subject to calls that the struggle
should be abandoned. Despite equally mixed results in
international interventions,
1
no one advocates accepting
poverty or war as inevitable. Not so with drugs, where a
range of unintended consequences have led some to
conclude that the only solution is to legalise and tax
substances like cannabis, cocaine, ecstasy, methampheta-
mine, and heroin.
The strongest case against the current system of drug
control is not the financial costs of the system, or even
its effectiveness in reducing the availability of drugs.
2
The strongest case against drug control is the violence
and corruption associated with the black market. The
main problem is not that drug control efforts have failed
to eliminate drug use, an aspirational goal akin to the
elimination of war and poverty. It is that in attempting
to do so, they have indirectly enriched dangerous crimi-
nals, who kill and bribe their way from the countries
where drugs are produced to the countries where drugs
are consumed.
Of course, the member states of the United Nations cre-
ated the drug conventions, and they can modify or
annul them at will. But the Conventions would have to
be undone the way they were done: by global consensus.
And to date, they are very few international issues on
which there has been so much positive consensus as drug
control. Drug control was the subject of broad-based
international agreements in 1912, 1925, 1931, 1936,
1946, 1948, and 1953, before the creation of the stand-
ing United Nations Conventions in 1961, 1971, and
1988. Nearly every nation in the world has signed on to
these Conventions.
3
Nonetheless, there remains a serious and concerned
group of academics and civil society organisations who
feel the present system causes more harm than good.
Plans for drug “legalisation” are diverse, and often fuzzy
on the details, but one of the most popular alternative
models involves taxation and control in a manner simi-
lar to tobacco and alcohol.
4
This approach has appeal of
ideological consistency, since all these addictive sub-
stances are treated in the same way.
The practice of banning certain addictive substances
164
World Drug Report 2009
while permitting and taxing others is indeed difficult to
defend based on the relative harmfulness of the substances
themselves. Legal addictive substances kill far more people
every year than illegal ones – an estimated 500 million
people alive today will die due to tobacco.
5
But this
greater death toll is not a result of the licit substances
being pharmacologically more hazardous than the illicit
ones.
6
This greater death toll is a direct result of their
being legal, and consequently more available. Use rates of
illicit drugs are a fraction as high as for legal addictive
drugs, including among those who access the legal drugs
illegally (i.e. young people). If currently illegal substances
were made legal, their popularity would surely increase,
perhaps reaching the levels of licit addictive substances,
increasing the related morbidity and mortality.
Is the choice simply one of drug-related deaths or drug-
market-related deaths? Some palliative measures would
be available under a system of legalisation that are not
available today. If drugs were taxed, these revenues could
be used to fund public health programmes aimed at
reducing the impact of the increase in use. Addicts
might also be more accessible if their behaviour were
decriminalised. With bans on advertising and increas-
ingly restrictive regulation, it is possible that drug use
could be incrementally reduced, as tobacco use is cur-
rently declining in most of the developed world.
Unfortunately, most of this thinking has indeed been
restricted to the developed world, where both treatment
and capacity to collect taxes are relatively plentiful. It
ignores the role that global drug control plays in protect-
ing developing countries from addictive drugs. Without
consistent global policy banning these substances, devel-
oping countries would likely be afflicted by street drugs
the way they are currently afflicted by growing tobacco
and alcohol problems.
In most developing countries, street drugs are too scarce
and expensive for most consumers. They are scarce and
expensive because they are illegal. Today, traffickers con-
centrate on getting almost all of the cocaine and heroin
produced to high-value destinations, placing the burden
of addiction on those well suited to shoulder it, at least
financially. If these pressures were removed, lower value
markets would also be cultivated with market-specific
pricing, as they presently are for most consumer goods.
For example, cocaine use in the countries where cocaine
is actually produced is less than half as high as in many
European countries or the United States. This could
easily change. Bolivia is a poor country where 42% of
the population lives on less than US$2 per day
8
and
which produces about 10% of the global cocaine supply.
According to reported figures, cocaine in Bolivia was
US$9 per gram in 2005, about 10% of the price in the
United States. But GDP per capita was 42 times higher
in the US than in Bolivia, so the price was effectively
four times higher in Bolivia.
9
In contrast, 27% of the adult population of Bolivia
smokes cigarettes daily.
10
A pack of cigarettes was priced
at just US$0.62 at official exchange rates in 2006, so
even the poor find an imported addictive substance
more affordable than the locally-produced one.
11
Bolivia
is not unique in this respect: in many poor countries,
more than 10% of household expenditure is for tobac-
co.
12
Indeed, the spread of tobacco to the developing world
gives a hint of what could happen if other addictive
substances were made legal. Many transition countries
have much higher tobacco use prevalence than the richer
ones, and Africas tobacco market is presently growing
by 3.5% per year, the fastest rate in the world.
13
By
2030, more than 80% of the world’s tobacco deaths will
Global deaths related to substance Fig. 1:
use in 2002
Source: World Health Organisation
7
Annual cocaine prevalenceFig. 2:
Source: 2009 World Drug Report
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
Tobacco Alcohol Illicit drugs
0.8 0.8
0.9
2.2
2.3
3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Colombia
Bolivia
Peru
Italy
England and
Wales
Spain
% of adult population using annually
165
Confronting unintended consequences: Drug control and the criminal black market
occur in developing countries.
14
These countries can
ill-afford this burden of disease. They are even less capa-
ble of giving up a share of their productive work force to
more immediately debilitating forms of addiction.
“Vice taxes” are also used to control the spread of legal
addictive drugs, making them more expensive and thus
reducing demand. But again, capacity to enforce these
taxes is less in developing countries, and high taxes gen-
erate large shadow markets, as illustrated by tobacco
markets today. Recent estimates suggest 10% or more of
global tobacco consumption is untaxed, and that the
illicit share of the market is particularly pronounced in
Africa (15%) and Latin America (20%). An estimated
600 billion cigarettes are smuggled each year.
15
If these
were priced at just a dollar a pack, this would represent
a global market worth US$30 billion, comparable to the
US$65 billion market for illicit opiates and US$71 bil-
lion market for cocaine.
18
As with illicit drugs, illicit
tobacco has been used to fund violence in places as
diverse as the Balkans
19
and West Africa.
20
The universal ban on illicit drugs thus provides a great
deal of protection to developing countries, and must be
maintained. At the same time, the violence and corrup-
tion associated with drug markets is very real, and must
be addressed. Fortunately, there is no reason why both
drug control and crime prevention cannot be accom-
plished with existing resources, if the matter is approached
in a strategic and coordinated manner.
Control drugs while preventing crime
Drug addiction represents a large social cost, a cost we
seek to contain through the system of international drug
control. But this system itself has its costs, and these are
not limited to the expenditure of public funds. Interna-
tional drug control has produced several unintended
consequences, the most formidable of which is the crea-
tion of a lucrative black market for controlled sub-
stances, and the violence and corruption it generates.
Drug control generates scarcity, boosting prices out of
proportion to production costs. Combined with the bar-
riers of illegality and prevention efforts, scarcity and
high prices have helped contain the spread of illicit
drugs. This has kept drugs out of the hands of an untold
number of potential addicts. At the same time, however,
high prices allow transnational traffickers to generate
obscene profits, simply for being willing to shoulder the
risk of defying the law.
Given the money involved, competition for the oppor-
tunity to sell is often fierce, resulting in small wars on
the streets of marginalised areas in the developed and the
Price of a gram of cocaine as a share Fig. 3:
of daily GDP per capita in 2005
Source: 2008 WDR, Human Development Report 2007/2008
Share of national tobacco markets that Fig. 5:
are illicit (recent low end estimates)
Source: Framework Convention Alliance, 2007
17
0.8
3.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
USA Bolivia
Days of income to buy one gram of cocaine
1011
1956
2886
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1970-72 1980-82 1990-92
thousands of tons
Cigarette consumption in developing Fig. 4:
countries, 1970-1992
Source: UN FAO
16
8%
10% 10%
20% 20%
25%
30%
40%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
EU-25
Canada
Vietnam
Russia
South Africa
Iran
Brazil
Albania
166
World Drug Report 2009
developing world alike. Profits are ploughed back into
increasing the capacity for violence and into corrupting
public officials. Together, violence and corruption can
drive away investment and undermine governance to the
point that the rule of law itself becomes questionable.
As a result, some have argued that the costs of control-
ling illicit drugs outweigh the benefits – in effect, that
the side effects are so severe that the treatment is worse
than the disease. But this is a false dilemma. It is incum-
bent on the international community to achieve both
objectives: to control illicit drugs and to limit the costs
associated with this control. More creative thinking is
needed on ways of reducing the violence and corruption
associated with containing the drug trade. Progress must
be made toward simultaneously achieving the twin goals
of drug control and crime prevention.
To do this, there are several ways present efforts could be
improved and expanded. First, it is possible for law
enforcement to do what it does much better:
High volume arrests are the norm in many parts of the s
world, but their efficacy is questionable – to conserve
resources, prison space should be reserved primarily for
traffickers, particularly violent ones.
Drug addicts provide the bulk of drug demand; treat- s
ing this problem is one of the best ways of shrinking
the market.
e links between drug users and drug dealers also s
need to be severed, closing open drug markets and
disrupting information networks using the techniques
of problem-oriented policing and situational crime
prevention.
Second, both local and international efforts need to be
strategically coordinated to address the particularities of
specific drug problems:
e right “balance” between supply-side and de- s
mand-side interventions depends very much on the
particularities of the situation, and may require re-
sources and expertise beyond those found in agencies
traditionally involved in prevention, treatment, and
law enforcement.
At all points in the market (production, trafficking, s
consumption), strategies should be based on the specif-
ic characteristics of the drug involved and the context
in which it has become problematic.
Focus should be placed on shrinking the markets, not s
just disabling specific individuals or groups.
Where drug flows cannot be stopped, they should be s
guided by enforcement and other interventions so that
they produce the least possible damage.
Finally, the international community must rally together
to assist more vulnerable members in resisting the incur-
sion of drugs:
Post-conflict reconstruction and development aid s
should be integrated with crime prevention efforts.
Better use should be made of the Conventions, particu- s
larly toward international action on precursor control,
money laundering, asset forfeiture, organised crime,
and corruption.
Information systems need to be improved so that prob- s
lems can be tracked and interventions evaluated.
2.2 Move beyond reactive law enforcement
Drug possession and sale are illegal in most countries of
the world, and, as a r
esult, the drug problem was long
seen as primarily a criminal justice issue. Those who take
the “drug war” metaphor literally may feel this effort is
best advanced by people in uniform with guns. Law
enforcement must continue to play a key role, of course,
keeping drugs illegal and scarce, but much can be done
to make the criminal justice response more effective and
efficient.
In the end, the criminal justice system is a very blunt
instrument for dealing with drug markets. As necessary
as the deterrent threat remains, the arrest, prosecution,
and incarceration of individuals is an extremely slow,
expensive, and labour intensive process. The key to dis-
rupting drug markets and the associated violence and
corruption must lie in making the business of drug deal-
ing more complicated, making it more difficult for
buyers and sellers to connect. To do this, the techniques
of situational crime prevention and problem-oriented
policing should be employed.
Stop jailing petty offenders
Current street enforcement actions could be divided
into two categories:
Opportunistic enforcement, usually against those s
found in possession of drugs when stopped for an un-
related reason.
Pro-active enforcement, including buy-and-bust ac- s
tions against dealers at open markets; searches of sus-
pect premises or persons; and more sophisticated long-
term investigations.
All of these actions are justified under the law, but all
absorb scarce criminal justice resources. The decision to
perform any given form of enforcement has opportunity
costs for other approaches. It is important, then, to
weigh the impact of any given action both in terms of
its efficacy in reducing the size of the black market and
any potential side-effects it might have.