7
OUTLOOK
After a positive Christmas traffic in Domestic France and to the Caribbean and Indian Ocean,
travel restrictions were tightened in France, the Netherlands and worldwide, having a negative
impact on the traffic of the Group in the first quarter of 2021.
There is limited visibility on the demand recovery curve as customer booking behavior is much
more short-term oriented and also highly dependent on the imposed travel restrictions, on both
the Long Haul and Medium Haul network.
The Group will progressively ramp up capacity towards summer 2021 and expects recovery in
the second and third quarter 2021 thanks to the vaccine deployment.
For the time being, KLM is not able to execute passenger flights between the Netherlands and
South Africa, South America and the UK while France banned all non-essential travel from and
to France. Instead of gradually increasing capacity during the First Quarter, the capacity had
to be reduced.
In this context the Group expects:
Capacity in Available Seat kilometers circa index 40 for Air France-KLM in the First
quarter 2021 compared to 2019 for the Network passenger activity due to negative
environment.
Given the under capacity in the Cargo industry, strong steering options for the First quarter
2021 remain available, although future performance is pending passenger industry recovery.
Due to the lockdown and travel restrictions still in place, The Group anticipates a challenging
First quarter 2021, with a lower EBITDA compared to the Fourth Quarter 2020.
At 31 December 2020, the Group has a solid 9.8 billion euros of liquidity and credit lines at
disposal.
The Group foresees liquidity requirements in 2021 with:
Negative First quarter working capital requirement influenced by deferred payments
and substantial low level of new bookings
Capex spending before fleet financings at 2.0 billion euros in 2021
Restructuring cash out at 0.5 billion euros in 2021
Guidance : Air France-KLM Group medium term operating margin objective unchanged
but delayed
The Group accelerates its transformation initiatives and confirms its medium-term financial
ambition. The Group continues to balance its medium-term focus on managing liquidity with
the long-term focus on achieving increased competitiveness. To do this, the Group continues
to optimize, fleet, labour, network and costs.
The Covid-19 crisis is showing an unprecedented impact on traffic. In order to anticipate on
this decline in traffic. The Group estimates the number of aircraft in 2022 to be 7% below the
number of aircraft in 2019. The Group expects capacity in ASK back to the 2019 levels only in
2024.
By the end of 2020 the Group managed to decrease the number of FTE already by 10%
compared to December 2019. In the coming years the number of FTE will further decrease by